Global sanctions on energy and consumer goods following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mean the country is now on route to entering a deep recession, predicts UC Berkley economist. Despite Putin’s claims that Russia’s economy is doing fine, it may be careering towards a “severe recession” within the year, according to an expert economist at University of California Berkley. It means that the cumulative effect of Western nations withdrawing trade from Russia may be finally starting to pay off. Yuriy Gorodnichenko attributes the anticipated economic slide to two things – the demise of ‘petrodollars’ (money obtained through Russia’s oil and gas trade), and a lack of US dollars flowing into the country more generally via the trade of consumer goods, including alcoholic beverages. Last year, Moscow’s oil and gas sales plummeted by 24% to a three-year low due to sanctions imposed by the West in response to Russia’s war with Ukraine. Gorodnichenko has revealed that when the Soviet Union lost access to these ‘petrodollars’, its economy collapsed within five years. This time, he says, the demise is likely to be much faster as modern-day Russia is less self-sufficient than the former Soviet Union was. Russia is also poised to see a deficit of ₽1.59 trillion (US$18 billion) this year as a result of its hefty war budget. Both these factors, combined with the continued sanctions on the trade of everyday consumer goods, could push Russia into a deep recession in 2025. According to Gorodnichenko, Russia’s attempt to “de-dollarise” its trade and
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