China, US and India lead path to recovery for global alcohol market

Global beverage alcohol is expected to begin its recovery in 2025, according to new data and forecasts from IWSR, with three markets in particular driving growth. Global total beverage alcohol (TBA) declined 1% by volume and rose 2% by value (US$, variable exchange rate) in 2023, IWSR data shows. Excluding national spirits such as baijiu and shochu, global volumes were down 1% and value increased by just 3%. Total beverage alcohol volumes are expected to edge up by only 0.4% this year after the 2023 decline. But a stronger recovery is forecast for 2025. IWSR predicts that both volume and value will rise at a CAGR of 1% between 2023 and 2028. When recovery comes, growth is expected to be relatively modest. Evenso, there are bright spots. India, China and the US are expected to add US$30 billion in incremental value to the sector by 2028. India was responsible for major volume growth in 2023. All major beverage alcohol categories (except rum and wine) increased their volumes here, with both Scotch and US whiskies recording 7% volume gains. Despite the predicted increase in value to the alcohol sector thanks to China, the country experienced volume declines across a number of categories in 2023. International spirits grew by 2% as the on-trade reopened, but volumes of both Cognac (-3%) and malt Scotch (-11%) suffered falls. The US is the only mature market forecast to add substantial TBA value in the coming years. The path ahead for the country with the world’s largest